Examples of our research

Can we forecast the climate for the next decade?

Imagine the benefits of being able to forecast climate out over the next 1 or even 2 decades

Train tracks can buckle in hot weather, leading to speed restrictions and delays.  Rail companies need climate information to help them decide whether money should be invested now to replace track.

Information about the likelihood of dry or wet conditions over the next 5-10 years would help water companies plan ahead. 

Retails companies might be able to capitalise on new markets if they have information about future climate, for example, a greater chance of hot, dry summers over the next decade.

The science is showing real potential

The latest science is showing real potential for decadal forecasts because of the long term memory that exists in the Atlantic Ocean.

The temperature of the sea surface in the North Atlantic has varied slowly between warm and cold phases over the last 130 years – causing changes in climate over the US and Europe.  These natural swings between warm and cold are linked to a huge overturning circulation in the ocean known as the thermohaline circulation or Atlantic conveyor belt.

The North Atlantic has recently entered a warm phase, suggesting both the US and Europe could be in for more hot summers, and the US may be facing more summer droughts.  Warmth in the Atlantic is also linked to a higher frequency of hurricanes.

What about human-induced climate change?

Global warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases is now a big additional factor – which could weaken the thermohaline circulation.  How will this affect the natural cycles of warming and cooling?  Exactly how the effects will ad up we don’t yet know.

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