Food production in a changing climate
Crops are inherently sensitive to weather and climate. Much of the world’s supply of staple food – crops like rice and maize – is produced in the tropics. Many of these tropical regions can experience large changes in weather and climate from year-to-year.
In the Walker Institute, climate and agricultural experts have developed a new kind of crop model which operates at spatial scales much closer to those of climate models. It can be used to study the impact of climate on crops – including the effect of variability within the season – like a break in the Indian monsoon.
We can also investigate the impact of different (e.g., more stress resistant) cultivars, improved irrigation, and the effects of increased CO2 on crop yield. It also presents an ideal opportunity to examine the two-way interaction of crop and climate systems, recognising the limitations of studying these two systems in isolation.
Seasonal forecasts of crop yield
Reliable seasonal forecasts of crop yield would be of real benefit to farmers and policymakers, and could assist with famine early warning systems in vulnerable regions. Our crop model has shown useful skill in predicting crop yields a few months before the harvest.
The impacts of climate change on crops pose a serious threat to food security in tropical and temperate regions.
Under climate change crops in many regions will be prone to environmental stresses not observed in today’s climate.
By the end of the 21st century short periods of very high temperature are much more likely over a wider area. If these occur at flowering time then the harvest of annual crops such as groundnut and wheat can be seriously reduced.
Read more in article “Food Forecasting” >>
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