Publications

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Recent publications

Some examples of recent publications by Walker Institute associates can be found below.

2011

Allan, R. (2011) Regime dependent changes in global precipitation. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 (In Press)

Allan, R. P. (2011) Human influence on rainfall. Nature, 470 (7334). pp. 344-345. ISSN 0028-0836

Arnell, N. (2011) Incorporating climate change into water resources planning in England and Wales. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3). pp. 541-549. ISSN 1752-1688

Arnell, N. (2011) Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (3). pp. 897-912. ISSN 1027-5606

Arnell, N. W. , van Vuuren, D. P. and Isaac, M. (2011) The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. Global Environmental Change, 21 (2). pp. 592-603. ISSN 0959-3780

Black, E. , Brayshaw, D. , Black, S. and Rambeau, C. (2011) Using proxy data, historical climate data and climate models to investigate aridification during the Holocene. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, life and civilisation: climate, environment and society in the Jordan Valley. International hydrology series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 105-112. ISBN 9780521769570

Black, E. , Brayshaw, D. , Slingo, J. and Hoskins, B. (2011) Future climate of the Middle East. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, life and civilisation: climate, environment and society in the Jordan Valley. International hydrology series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 51-62. ISBN 9780521769570

Carbonero, C. H. , Mueller-Harvey, I. , Brown, T. A. and Smith, L. (2011) Sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia): a beneficial forage legume. Plant Genetic Resource: Characterization and Utilization, 9 (1). pp. 70-85. ISSN 1479-263X

Charlton, M. B. and Arnell, N. W. (2011) Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans. Global Environmental Change, 21 (1). pp. 238-248. ISSN 0959-3780

Clark, J. M. , van der Heijden, G. M. F. , Palmer, S. M. , Chapman, P. J. and Bottrell, S. H. (2011) Variation in the sensitivity of DOC release between different organic soils following H2SO4 and sea-salt additions. European Journal of Soil Science, 62 (2). pp. 267-284. ISSN 1351-0754

Culham, A. and Yesson, C. (2011) Biodiversity informatics for climate change studies. In: Hodkinson, T. , Jones, M. , Waldren, S. and Parnell, J. (eds.) Climate change, ecology and systematics. Cambridge University Press, pp. 231-242. ISBN 9780521766098 (Chapter 10)

Ellis, R. H. (2011) Rice seed quality development and temperature during late development and maturation. Seed Science Research, 21 (2). pp. 95-101. ISSN 0960-2585

Gosling, S. N. and Arnell, N. W. (2011) Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis. Hydrological Processes, 25 (7). pp. 1129-1145. ISSN 0885-6087

Gosling, S. , Taylor, R. G. , Arnell, N. and Todd, M. C. (2011) A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (1). pp. 279-294. ISSN 1027-5606

Hadjikakou, M. , Whitehead, P. , Li, J. , Futter, M. , Hadjinicolaou, P. and Shahgedanova, M. (2011) Modelling nitrogen in the Yesilirmak River catchment in Northern Turkey: impacts of future climate and environmental change and implications for nutrient management. Science of the Total Environment, 409 (12). pp. 2404-2418. ISSN 0048-9697

Harris, B. M. and Highwood, E. (2011) A simple relationship between volcanic sulfate aerosol optical depth and surface temperature change simulated in an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 116. D05109. ISSN 0148-0227

Hawkins, E. (2011) Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of climate variability. Weather, 66 (7). pp. 175-179. ISSN 1477-8696

Hawkins, E. , Robson, J. , Sutton, R. , Smith, D. and Keenlyside, N. (2011) Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dynamics. pp. 1-15. ISSN 0930-7575 (In Press)

Hawkins, E. , Smith, R. S. , Allison, L. C. , Gregory, J. M. , Woollings, T. J. , Pohlmann, H. and de Cuevas, B. (2011) Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (10). L10605. ISSN 0094-8276

Helfter, C. , Famulari, D. , Phillips, G. J. , Barlow, J. F. , Wood, C. , Grimmond, C. S. B. and Nemitz, E. (2011) Controls of carbon dioxide concentrations and fluxes above central London. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 (5). pp. 1913-1928. ISSN 1680-7316

Heywood, V. , Brummitt, R.K. , Culham, A. and Seberg, O. (2011) Flowering plants: a concise pictorial guide. Kew Publishing, UK. ISBN 9781842464380

Lucarini, V. and Ragone, F. (2011) Energetics of climate models: net energy balance and meridional enthalpy transport. Reviews of Geophysics, 49 (RG1001). ISSN 8755-1209

Lucarini, V. and Sarno, S. (2011) A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18 (1). pp. 7-28. ISSN 1023-5809

Myhre, G. , Shine, K. P. , Radel, G. , Gauss, M. , Isaksen, I.S.A. , Tang, Q. , Prather, M.J. , Williams, J.E. , van Velthoven, P. , Dessens, O. , Koffi, B. , Szopa, S. , Hoor, P. , Grewe, V. , Borken-Kleefeld, J. , Berntsen, T.K. and Fuglestvedt, J.S. (2011) Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector. Atmospheric Environment, 45. pp. 387-394. ISSN 1352-2310

Roberts, N. , Brayshaw, D. , Vanniere, B. and Sadori, L. (2011) The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean: an overview of its nature, age, causes and consequences. Holocene. ISSN 0959-6836 (In Press)

Shahgedanova, M. , Popovnin, V. , Aleynikov, A. and Stokes, C. R. (2011) Geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier, Kodar Mountains, eastern Siberia, and its links to observed and projected climatic change. Annals of Glaciology, 52 (58). pp. 129-137. ISSN 1727-5644

Shaw, M. W. and Osborne, T. M. (2011) Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change. Plant Pathology, 60 (1). pp. 31-43. ISSN 0032-0862

Simpson, D. A. , Yesson, C. , Culham, A. , Couch, C. A. and Muasya, A. M. (2011) Climate change and Cyperaceae. In: Hodkinson, T. , Jones, M. , Waldren, S. and Parnell, J. (eds.) Climate change, ecology and systematics. Cambridge University Press, pp. 439-456. ISBN 9780521766098 (Chapter 19)

Smith, S. , Wade, A. , Black, E. , Brayshaw, D. , Rambeau, C. and Mithen, S. (2011) From global climate change to local impact in Wadi Faynan, southern Jordan: ten millennia of human settlement in its hydrological context. In: Mithen, S. and Black, E. (eds.) Water, life and civilisation: climate, environment and society in the Jordan Valley. International hydrology series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 218-244. ISBN 9780521769570

Todd, M. , Taylor, R. , Osborn, T. , Kingston, D. , Arnell, N. and Gosling, S. (2011) Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources - preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (3). pp. 1035-1046. ISSN 1027-5606

van Vuuren, D. P. , Isaac, M. , Kundzewicz, Z. W. , Arnell, N. , Barker, T. , Criqui, P. , Berkhout, F. , Hilderink, H. , Hinkel, J. , Hof, A. , Kitous, A. , Kram, T. , Mechler, R. and Scrieciu, S. (2011) The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 21 (2). pp. 575-591. ISSN 0959-3780

Wood, C. R. and Harrison, R. G. (2011) Scorch marks from the sky. Weather, 66 (2). pp. 39-41. ISSN 0043-1656

Yesson, C. and Culham, A. (2011) Biogeography of cyclamen: an application of phyloclimatic modelling. In: Hodkinson, T. , Jones, M. , Waldren, S. and Parnell, J. (eds.) Climate change, ecology and systematics. Cambridge University Press, pp. 265-279. ISBN 9780521766098 (Chapter 12)

Zappa, G. , Lucarini, V. and Navarra, A. (2011) Baroclinic stationary waves in aquaplanet models. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (5). pp. 1023-1040. ISSN 1520-0469

2010

Allan, R. P. and Liepert, B. G. (2010) Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 025201. ISSN 1748-9326

Allan, R. P. , Soden, B. J. , John, V. O. , Ingram, W. and Good, P. (2010) Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 025205. ISSN 1748-9326

Arnell, N. W. (2010) Adapting to climate change: an evolving research programme. Climatic Change, 100 (1). pp. 107-111. ISSN 0165-0009

Baum, A. , Scully, P. J. , Perrie, W. , Liu, D. and Lucarini, V. (2010) Mechanisms of femtosecond laser-induced refractive index modification of poly(methyl methacrylate). Journal of the Optical Society of America B-Optical Physics, 27 (1). 107-111 . ISSN 0030-3941

Charlton-Perez, A. , Dacre, H. , Maskell, K. , Reynolds, R. , South, R. and Wood, C. (2010) Meteorology and climate inspire secondary school students. School Science Review, 92 (339). pp. 75-82. ISSN 0036-6811

Clark, J. M. , Billett, M. F. , Coyle, M. , Croft, S. , Daniels, S. , Evans, C. D. , Evans, M. , Freeman, C. , Gallego-Sala, A. V. , Heinemeyer, A. , House, J. I. , Monteith, D. T. , Nayak, D. , Orr, H. G. , Prentice, I. C. , Rose, R. , Rowson, J. , Smith, J. U. , Smith, P. , Tun, Y. M. , Vanguelova, E. , Wetterhall, F. and Worrall, F. (2010) Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099). Climate Research, 45. pp. 227-248. ISSN 0936-577X

Clark, J. M. , Gallego-Sala, A. V. , Allott, T. E. H. , Chapman , S. J. , Farewell, T. , Freeman, C. , House, J. I. , Orr, H. G. , Prentice, I. C. and Smith, P. (2010) Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models. Climate Research, 45. pp. 131-150. ISSN 0936-577X

Clark, J. M. , Orr, H. G. , Freer, J. , House, J. I. , Smith, P. and Freeman, C. (2010) Assessment of projected changes in upland environments using simple climatic indices. Climate Research, 45. pp. 87-104. ISSN 0936-577X

Dall'Osto, M. , Harrison, R. , Highwood, E. J. , O'Dowd, C. , Ceburnis, D. , Querol, X. and Achterberg, E. (2010) Variation of the mixing state of Saharan dust particles with atmospheric transport. Atmospheric Environment, 44 (26). 3135 -3146 . ISSN 1352-2310

Gosling, S. N. , Bretherton, D. , Haines, K. and Arnell, N. W. (2010) Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368. pp. 4005-4021. ISSN 1364-503X

Gregory, J. M. and Tailleux, R. (2010) Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 (In Press)

Hagg, W. , Shahgedanova, M. , Mayer, C. , Lambrecht, A. and Popovnin, V. (2010) A sensitivity study for water availability in the Northern Caucasus based on climate projections. Global and Planetary Change, 73 (3-4). pp. 161-171. ISSN 0921-8181

Heap, M. J. and Culham, A. (2010) Automated pre-processing strategies for species occurrence data used in biodiversity modelling. Lecture Notes in Computer Science: Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, Part IV (6279). pp. 517-526. ISSN 0302-9743

House, J. I. , Orr, H. G. , Clark, J. M. , Gallego-Sala, A. V. , Freeman, C. , Prentice, I. C. and Smith, P. (2010) Climate change and the British Uplands: evidence for decision-making. Climate Research, 45. pp. 3-12. ISSN 0936-577X

Jagadish, S.V.K. , Cairns, J. , Lafitte, R. , Wheeler, T. R. , Price, A.H. and Craufurd, P. Q. (2010) Genetic analysis of heat tolerance at anthesis in rice. Crop Science, 50 (5). pp. 1633-1641. ISSN 0011-183X

Jagadish, S.V.K. , Muthurajan, R. , Oane, R. , Wheeler, T. R. , Heuer, S. , Bennett, J. and Craufurd, P. Q. (2010) Physiological and proteomic approaches to address heat tolerance during anthesis in rice (Oryza sativa L.). Journal of Experimental Botany, 61 (1). pp. 143-156. ISSN 0022-0957

Li, S. , Wheeler, T. R. , Challinor, A. , Lin, E. , Ju, H. and Xu, Y. (2010) The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150 (11). pp. 1412-1419. ISSN 0168-1923

Li, S. , Wheeler, T. , Challinor, A. , Lin, E. , Xu, Y. and Ju, H. (2010) Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 24 (1). pp. 123-135. ISSN 0894-0525

Lucarini, V. , Fraedrich, K. and Lunkeiot, F. (2010) Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136 (646). pp. 2-11. ISSN 1477-870X

Lucarini, V. , Fraedrich, K. and Lunkeit, F. (2010) Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (20). pp. 9729-9737. ISSN 1680-7316

McConnell, C. L. , Formenti, P. , Highwood, E. J. and Harrison, M. A. J. (2010) Using aircraft measurements to determine the refractive index of Saharan dust during the DODO Experiments. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (6). pp. 3081-3098. ISSN 1680-7316

McMeeking, G. , Hamburger, T. , Liu, D. , Flynn, M. , Morgan, W. , Northway, M. , Highwood, E. J. , Krejci, R. , Allan, J. , Minikin, A. and Coe, H. (2010) Black carbon measurements in the boundary layer over western and northern Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (19). pp. 9393-9414. ISSN 1680-7316

Mitchell, D. , Charlton-Perez, A. J. and Gray, L. J. (2010) Characterising the variability and extremes of the stratospheric polar vortices using 2D moment analysis. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. ISSN 1520-0469 (In Press)

Morgan, W. , Allan, J. , Bower, K. , Esselborn, M. , Harris, B. , Henzing, J. , Highwood, E. J. , Kiendler-Scharr, A. , Mcmeeking, G. , Mensah, A. , Northway, M. , Osborne, S. , Williams, P. , Krejci, R. and Coe, H. (2010) Enhancement of the aerosol direct radiative effect by semi-volatile aerosol components: airborne measurements in North-Western Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (17). pp. 8251-8171. ISSN 1680-7316

Poulter, B. , Hattermann, F. , Hawkins, E. , Zaehle, S. , Sitch, S. , Restrepo-Coupe, N. , Heyder , U. and Cramer, W. (2010) Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters. Global Change Biology, 16 (9). pp. 2476-2495. ISSN 1354-1013

Shahgedanova, M. , Nosenko, G. , Khromova, T. and Muraveyev, A. (2010) Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D16107. ISSN 0148-0227

Tailleux, R. G. J. (2010) Entropy versus APE production: on the buoyancy power input in the oceans energy cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 37. L22603. ISSN 0094-8276

Tailleux, R.G.J. (2010) Identifying and quantifying nonconservative energy production/destruction terms in hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation models. Ocean Modelling, 34 (3-4). pp. 125-136. ISSN 1463-5003

Teixera, M.A.C. and Belcher, S. E. (2010) On the structure of Langmuir turbulence. Ocean modelling, 31 (3-4). pp. 105-119. ISSN 1463-5003

Theodoridou, K. , Aufrere, J. , Andueza, D. , Pourrat, J. , Le Morvan, A. , Stringano, E. , Mueller-Harvey, I. and Baumont, R. (2010) The effect of condensed tannins in fresh sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) on in vivo and in situ digestion in sheep. Animal Feed Science and Technology, 160 (1-2). pp. 23-38. ISSN 0377-8401

Tompkins, E.L. , Adger, W.N. , Boyd, E. , Nicholson-Cole, S. , Weatherhead, K. and Arnell, N. (2010) Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society. Global Environmental Change, 20 (4). pp. 627-635. ISSN 0959-3780

Turner, A. G. and Hannachi, A. (2010) Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century? Geophysical Research Letters, 37. L16706. ISSN 0094-8276

van den Bosch, F. , Fraaije, B. A. , van den Berg, F. and Shaw, M. W. (2010) Evolutionary bi-stability in pathogen transmission mode. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 277. pp. 1735-1742. ISSN 1471-2954

van Vuuren, D. P. , Isaac, M. , Kundzewicz, Z. , Arnell, N. , Barker, T. , Criqui, P. , Bauer, N. , Berkhout, F. , Hilderink, H. , Hinkel, J. , Hof, A. , Kitous, A. , Kram, T. , Mechler, R. and Scrieciu, S. (2010) Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation. In: Hulme, M. and Neufeldt, H. (eds.) Making Climate Change Work For Us. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 54-86. ISBN 9780521119412

Wood, C. R. (2010) Adapting our cities for future climates: 17 February 2010. Weather, 65 (11). pp. 307-309. ISSN 0043-1656

2009

Ackerley, D. , Highwood, E. J. , Harrison, M. , McConnell, C. , Joshi, M. M. , Walters, D. , Milton, S. , Greed, G. and Brooks, M. (2009) The development of a new dust uplift scheme in the Met Office Unified Model. Meteorological Applications, 16 (4). pp. 445-460. ISSN 1350-4827

Gosling, S. N. , Lowe, J. and McGregor, G. (2009) Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 6 . 142010. ISSN 1755-1315

Gosling, S. N. , McGregor, G. and Lowe, J. (2009) Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change. International Journal of Biometeorology, 53 (1). pp. 31-51. ISSN 1432-1254

Keeley, S. P. E. , Sutton, R. T. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36 . L22706. ISSN 0094-8276

Kingston, D. , Todd, M. , Taylor, R. , Thompson, J. and Arnell, N. W. (2009) Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 . L20403. ISSN 0094-8276

Allan, R. P. (2009), Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations, J. Climate, 22, 3127-3145.

Challinor A.J., Wheeler T. , Hemming D. and Upadhyaya H.D. (2009). Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change. Climate Research 38, 117-127.

Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R. and others (2009). Methods, skills and resources for climate impacts research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. In press

Haywood, J. M., R. P. Allan, J. Bornemann, P. Forster, P. N. Francis, S. Milton, G. Rädel, A. Rap, K. P. Shine and R. Thorpe (2009) A Case Study of the Radiative Forcing of Persistent Contrails Evolving into Contrail-Induced Cirrus J. Geophys. Res., 114,D24201, doi:10.1029/2009JD012650.

Stanislav Kutuzov and Maria Shahgedanova (2009)

Glacier retreat and climatic variability in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo, inner Tien Shan between the middle of the 19th century and beginning of the 21st century

Global and Planetary Change 69 (2009) 59–70

ohn, V.O., R.P. Allan and B.J. Soden (2009), How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L14702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038276.