Advice on UK climate change scenarios

Guidance on use of UK climate change scenarios

New climate change scenarios for the UK were released on June 18th 2009 (the UKCP09 scenarios).

The Walker Institute has considerable experience in the development and use of climate scenarios across a range of sectors including water, agriculture, ecosystems and the built environment.

We can provide specific advice and guidance on:

• The scientific framework for the UKCP09 projections, and how this differs from that used in other climate scenarios
• The interpretation of the UKCP09 projections, and how their representation of uncertainty compares with other possible approaches
• The use of the UKCP09 projections to assess the potential impacts of climate change
• The limitations to, and gaps in, the UKCP09 projections – and how to address them

Background on UKCP09 climate change scenarios

The UKCP09 climate change scenarios describe how climate may change over the UK during the 21st century. They give information about increases in temperature, changes in the seasonal pattern of rainfall, and a rise in sea level around the UK's coastline.

The UKCP09 projections represent a substantial advance over earlier UK climate scenarios, because they explicitly incorporate the effects of uncertainty. This information comes in a variety of forms, including probability distributions of specific climate variables, joint probability distributions, and ensembles containing multiple scenarios. However, the radical nature of the UKCP09 projections means that they may be challenging to use in practice. What do the probabilities actually mean? How can we estimate impacts where these impacts are dependent on changes in a number of climatic variables?