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The UK climate change risk assessment - January 2012

What is the CCRA?

The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) gives a national overview of the possible impacts of climate change across a range of sectors and the timescale of those impacts through the 21st century. The assessment uses a new methodology to not only assess risks, but also to try and identify the most important risks within each sector.

This is the first UK climate change risk assessment as required under the Climate Change Act 2008 and will inform the Government's National Adaptation Plan. It has taken 3 years to produce and will be updated every 5 years.

Find out more about Government policy on addressing climate change>>

Main findings

The report highlights the most significant risks to the UK from climate change:

• coastal and river flooding -properties and businesses, transport, energy systems and water supply would be affected; damage to properties in England and Wales could be as high as £6 billion per year by the 2050s;
• increased health risks from more frequent heatwaves, but premature deaths due to winter cold would decrease
• increased pressure on UK water resources - due to rainfall changes, population growth and regulation; Thames region likely to be most severly affected, although could be managed in the near term
• climate change will impose addtional stress on ecosystems already under pressure from land-use change
• risks to the UK economy from climate change in other parts of the world. For example, coastal flooding in China could impact a range of UK businesses.

Some limitations

• the assessment does not build in societal change (apart from population change), so it effectively gives an indication of risks as if imposed on today's society.
• the assessment cannot be viewed as a prediction for the future, instead it considers a range of possible outcomes and gives an overview of risks, as well as an indication of what may be the most significant and pressing risks
• it was not possible to assess some of the more complex interactions such as the overall risks to ecosystems or to analyse multiplicative effects of several risks occurring together; for example successive droughts followed by floods, or multiple infrastructure failures caused by severe weather events.

Sectors considered in the risk assessment:

How was the assessment produced?

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs(Defra) and the devolved administrations were responsible for producing the report. The process has taken 3 years.

The project was carried out by a group of contractors led by HR Wallingford Ltd. The outputs have been extensively peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts and an independent international peer review panel.

There has been a wide engagement of stakeholders in the process, including representation from Local Government, the insurance industry, professional bodies, civil society, and other experts. Each sector also has a group of experts from the public and private sector to consult on the areas of the assessment that require specific knowledge.

Additionally, the Adaptation Sub Committee of the Committee on Climate Change (ASC) have provided advice and expert scrutiny to the assessment as part of their statutory role. More>>

See Government pages with full report and summary>>